NBA: Oklahoma City extremely rare favorite over Spurs

It isn’t a surprise that the San Antonio Spurs are playing better now than they were when they faced the Oklahoma City Thunder in November. The fact that the Thunder have improved as well is something few would probably have predicted. The surging Spurs l

2010-01-13

It isn’t a surprise that the San Antonio Spurs are playing better now than they were when they faced the Oklahoma City Thunder in November. The fact that the Thunder have improved as well is something few would probably have predicted. The surging Spurs look to extend their run as one of the NBA’s hottest teams over the last month when they visit the Thunder on Wednesday night. As a sign of the new times in the NBA though, OKC is a 2-point favorite at Sportsbook.com, although bettors aren’t fully buying in to the sale by oddsmakers, as they are backing the Spurs at a 60%-plus clip.

San Antonio (23-13, 19-16-1 ATS) got off to the franchise’s worst start in 13 years with six losses in its first 10 games, including a 101-98 defeat at home to Oklahoma City (21-16) on Nov. 14. As expected, the Spurs recovered once they got healthy, and they’ve gone 14-4 and 11-6-1 ATS since Dec. 9, trailing only Cleveland’s 15-4 mark for the best record over that stretch. San Antonio won its second consecutive game Tuesday, defeating the Los Angeles Lakers 105-85.

With Pau Gasol out and Kobe Bryant limited to 33 minutes because of back spasms, San Antonio shot 57.3 percent and outscored Los Angeles 27-10 off turnovers. Tim Duncan had 25 points and 13 rebounds while Tony Parker added 22 points and six assists. The Lakers are just the fourth winning team the Spurs have beaten this season.
“We needed this one,” Duncan said. “Obviously they’re dealing with some injuries, and Kobe doesn’t play in the fourth quarter or whatever it may be, but it’s a great win for us. We’ll take it where we can get it.”
The Spurs have held their last nine opponents to 90.7 points and are 4-1 ATS in last five road tilts.

Duncan was 12 of 19 (63.2 percent) from the field Tuesday, the fifth time in seven games he’s shot 60 percent or better. He scored 22 points on 64.3 percent shooting against the Thunder in November - San Antonio’s third defeat in its last four games against Oklahoma City. The Spurs are 10-1 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite of seven or more.

Although the Thunder’s win over the Spurs moved them to just 5-4, it seemed to signal the team was making progress after winning 23 games in 2008-09 and 20 games the season before.

Oklahoma City (21-16, 22-15 ATS) has won eight of its last 10, covering seven of the previous 11 and suddenly a playoff berth is not out of the realm of possibilities. The Thunder are looking to win their third straight Wednesday after a 106-88 decision over New York on Monday. They held the Knicks to 38.2 percent shooting and forced 20 turnovers. Kevin Durant had 30 points - the ninth time in 11 games he’s scored at least 30.

It was the fourth time in the last 10 games Oklahoma City held an opponent to fewer than 90 points. “Our effort is there and it’s making our defense work and our guys deserve a lot of credit for coming in every game and continuing to play defensive basketball,” coach Scott Brooks said.

While defense does matter, a closer look shows how the Thunder perform offensively is at least as important. When Oklahoma City scores 100 points this season they are an unthinkable 18-1 against the spread.

The Thunder could be challenged soon, though. Seven of Oklahoma City’s last nine games have come against teams with losing records, but Wednesday begins a stretch of contests against some of the NBA’s elite. The Thunder visit Dallas on Friday, then host Miami on Saturday before going back on the road next week to face Atlanta.

Durant scored 25 points against the Spurs in November but went just 6 for 18 from the field. He’s averaging 25.5 points and shooting 48.7 percent in eight career games against them.

Sportsbook.com has Oklahoma City as two-point favorites, with total of 193.5. This is the first time in 16 meetings the Thunder/Sonics have been a home favorite, dating back to a May 1 playoff game in 2002. The Thunder are on a 7-3 ATS run as favorites, though 2-8 ATS after a win by 10 or more. San Antonio is 13-27 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less over the last three seasons and 18-6 OVER revenging a same season loss.

This matchup starts at 8 Eastern and can be seen in local markets, with Oklahoma City 23-9 UNDER at home after a game where they covered the spread the last two years, which could spell doom unless they reach 100 points.

The StatFox Power Line shows Oklahoma City by 3, indicating a possible under-pricing by Sportsbook.

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