NBA: Christmas 5-pack highlights NBA weekend top trends

If you’ve watched ESPN or ABC even once over the last month, surely you are aware that the networks are bringing you five games on Friday, Christmas Day. The action is most of what you’ll have to choose from if you like to spend your holidays wagering on

2009-12-28

If you’ve watched ESPN or ABC even once over the last month, surely you are aware that the networks are bringing you five games on Friday, Christmas Day. The action is most of what you’ll have to choose from if you like to spend your holidays wagering on sports. With that in mind, I figured I’d dedicate much of this weekend’s Top StatFox NBA Power Trends piece looking at those five games a little closer. Of course, I’ll take a quick look at the Saturday & Sunday action as well, plus reveal some of this week’s top betting angles for you to consider.

Here’s a look at each of the five games for Christmas Day. I’ve enlisted the help of the StatFox Platinum Sheet Consensus for predictions on the games. Picks were 59-46 (56%) for the season as of presstime.

(501) MIAMI at (502) NEW YORK (12:00 PM ET, ESPN)
New York has won seven of nine games to reach 11-17 on the season and will get a rare opportunity to strut its stuff on national TV when it takes on Miami to open the Christmas Day lineup of NBA action. The Heat have taken three straight games in the head-to-head series and have poured in 119 PPG in the process. All of those games were in Miami however, and at the Garden, the Knicks have actually taken four of five. Miami has been very inconsistent this season and has been hovering around the .500 mark for most of the first two months. The Heat have played well on the road, going 6-3 ATS while shooting 37.5% behind the arc.
SPSC: Play on Miami

(503) BOSTON at (504) ORLANDO (2:30 PM ET, ABC)
The second game of the day is the second meeting of the season between the Magic and Celtics, the same teams that put on a thrilling 7-game second round series in the Eastern Conference Playoffs last spring. The Magic won the first head-to-head meeting of the season in Boston, 83-78 as a 6-point dog. It was their third straight win over Boston, and they’ve held the Celtics to 9-53 shooting behind the arc in that span, 16.9%. HC Doc Rivers’ team has scored just 78.3 PPG as a result. They are one of the league’s hottest team though right now, having won 13 of 14 games to reach 22-5 on the season. They are also 38-21 ATS on the road revenging a same season loss under Rivers, and boast a 12-1 road record overall in ’09. Orlando is a perfect 9-0 SU & ATS vs. Atlantic Division teams this season.
SPSC: Play on Boston

(505) CLEVELAND at (506) LA LAKERS (5:00 PM ET, ABC)
The showcase game of the Christmas holiday matches the league’s biggest stars, Kobe Bryant & Lebron James. Bryant and the Lakers have won 16 of 17 games but strangely, are just 9-8 ATS in that span. They have also swept the East in 10 games this season but are just 5-5 ATS. Cleveland will be wrapping up a 4-game West coast road trip, and has also been a disappointment to bettors in ’09, hanging out around the .500 ATS mark. The Cavs have done some of their best work against elite competition: CLEVELAND is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=46% with a defense of <=43% over the last 3 seasons. This will be the first meeting of these teams this season. The Lakers swept the two games a year ago after Cleveland had taken the prior five.
SPSC: Play on LA Lakers

(507) LA CLIPPERS at (508) PHOENIX (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
After a scintillating start to the 2009 season, the Suns have cooled, and in Game #4 of the Christmas lineup, they will try to get it fired up again vs. the Clippers as they close a 4-game homestand. L.A.’s other team will be closing out a 6-game road trip looking to finish it at 3-3. The Clippers, though 12-16 and not playing all that poorly, still are just 10-17 ATS overall. However, they are 3-0 ATS vs. Pacific Division foes this season and actually own a 5-2 ATS record in their L7 games vs. Phoenix. The Suns are just 1-4 ATS in divisional games this year and 33-55 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5-12 points since ’96.
SPSC: Play on LA Clippers

(509) DENVER at (510) PORTLAND (10:30 PM ET, ESPN)
The final game of the big day in the NBA matches Denver and Portland and I issued a Best Bet for this game in the PS, issue #18: I have to think that the host with the best chance of getting it done on Christmas Day is Portland, who figures to be a small favorite. Can you think of any scheduling situation less comfortable than traveling for the late night game in Portland? Denver has to spend the whole holiday away and then take on a team that does solid work at home: PORTLAND is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PORTLAND 102.3, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 1*). At the same time, Denver struggles on the road vs. quality foes: Karl is 25-39 ATS (-17.9 Units) in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of DENVER. The average score was DENVER 97.9, OPPONENT 106.2 - (Rating = 2*). Blazers are getting back in stride. They win comfortably here.
SPSC: Play on Portland

The NBA weekend continues on Saturday with 10 games, including two involving teams that will have played on Friday’s card. The Lakers travel to Sacramento to take on the surprising Kings, who just this week came back from a 35-point deficit in Chicago to win. The Suns meanwhile will hit the road to take on Golden State. The Warriors are typically one of the league’s best home dogs and will be asked to come up big by their backers again here. In other action, Atlanta visits Indiana, and San Antonio takes on the Bucks in Milwaukee.

The weekend wraps up with six Sunday games. Houston, Indiana, San Antonio, and Dallas will all be in back-to-back situations with the Rockets facing the most difficult test, a second straight road outing in Cleveland. They are 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS so far on zero days rest though. The Pacers have also been good minus rest, boasting a 5-2 ATS mark when playing on a second consecutive day. They will be in Miami.

Now, here’s a look at some of this weekend’s Top StatFox NBA Power Trends:

Friday, 12/25/2009
(501) MIAMI vs. (502) NEW YORK
NEW YORK is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 104.6, OPPONENT 107.4 - (Rating = 2*)

(503) BOSTON vs. (504) ORLANDO
ORLANDO is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) against Atlantic division opponents this season. The average score was ORLANDO 107.2, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 3*)

(505) CLEVELAND vs. (506) LA LAKERS
CLEVELAND is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) vs good defensive teams (FG pct defense of <=43%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 95.8, OPPONENT 92 - (Rating = 1*)

(507) LA CLIPPERS vs. (508) PHOENIX
LA CLIPPERS are 22-43 ATS (-25.3 Units) versus good teams outscoring opponents by 3+ PPG over the L3 seasons. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 90.4, OPPONENT 102.8 - (Rating = 1*)

(509) DENVER vs. (510) PORTLAND
PORTLAND is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) at home vs. good shooting teams (>=46% FG%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PORTLAND 102.3, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 1*)

Saturday, 12/26/2009
(705) HOUSTON vs. (706) NEW JERSEY
NEW JERSEY is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ PPG this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 89.4, OPPONENT 103.4 - (Rating = 2*)

(707) NEW ORLEANS vs. (708) CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 9-0 UNDER (+9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ PPG this season. The average score was CHICAGO 91.6, OPPONENT 96.8 - (Rating = 3*)

(711) CHARLOTTE vs. (712) OKLAHOMA CITY
CHARLOTTE is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHARLOTTE 91, OPPONENT 95.4 - (Rating = 1*)

Sunday, 12/27/2009
(501) DETROIT vs. (502) TORONTO
TORONTO is 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) vs good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game over L3 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 98.7, OPPONENT 102.2 - (Rating = 1*)

(503) INDIANA vs. (504) MIAMI
INDIANA is 72-36 ATS (+32.4 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points since 1996. The average score was INDIANA 93.1, OPPONENT 90.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(507) SAN ANTONIO vs. (508) NEW YORK
NEW YORK is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 107.9, OPPONENT 108 - (Rating = 2*)

(509) DALLAS vs. (510) DENVER
DALLAS is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus excellent foul drawing teams attempting >=30 FTs/game over the L3 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 104.5, OPPONENT 108.1 - (Rating = 2*)

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