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NBA gambling line was created to assist the NBA bettor in developing the necessary edge to score a profit over the “house”.

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NBA: Orlando still favored, just by less in Game 4
2009-06-11

The NBA Playoffs offer so much insight into the teams, coaches and players, one can’t help but be excited about all the strategy changes and maneuvering if you are true basketball fan and wagering on games. Speaking of which, Thursday’s Game 4 brings a bit lower pointspread (Orlando -3) and a bit higher total (201). See how bettors have reacted to these oddsmakers adjustments on the BETTING TRENDS page.

Sometimes the boxscore’s paint a picture and other times they don’t, just like Game 3. Would it seem possible Orlando would take nine fewer three-point tries than the Lakers, convert three less than Los Angeles and still come out on top? The high quality adjustment made by Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, having his squad push the ball at every opportunity, before the slow-reacting Lakers defenders reacted, helped Orlando shoot 62.5 percent, yet the Magic had the same number of fast break points as L.A. (10)

This all adds to tremendous intrigue for Game 4. It is the Lakers turn to adjust, having to win one of the next two contests in Central Florida, really placing the pressure on Orlando to win twice on the Left Coast. Oddsmakers in part see Los Angeles making the right moves, as Sportsbook.com has them as 2.5-point underdogs, down from 4.5 in last contest. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and many people can’t foresee them being so off-kilter a second game in a row.

Los Angeles defenders took almost every fake, reacted poorly on defensive rotations, seldom getting a hand in the face of shooter or giving them clear path to the goal, like the Magic had free pass. L.A. shot free throws, well like Dwight Howard used to, converting on 16 of 26. At various points, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum played like some of the Seven Dwarfs (feel free to make this interactive article, by filling in your own matching dwarf with player performance). Kobe Bryant didn’t look like Kobe at crunch time and they will need him to have reversal of fortune quickly or this series will be 2-2.

For Los Angeles to improve on 14-6 ATS record as road underdog of 4.5 or less points, Lakers guards have to do better job feeding the post to Pau Gasol and Odom and they need to be more alert and ready. Hustle back on defense and be ready to defend the entire shot clock time, not just the parts that fit into schedule. Offensively, a more conventional return to triangle offensive, since isolation and top of the key screen and rolls were well defended by Orlando and might have contributed to Bryant appearing so fatigued late in the contest.

Orlando didn’t cover, but won the game. They are well-suited 20-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Magic played at tempo more suitable to players like Rafer Alston and Dwight Howard in Game 3. Alston’s ability to push the ball led to more open shots, (which he made) and Howard’s skill as athlete showed thru, as he also ran the floor and made hard cuts to the hoop.

Hedu Turkoglu was a dominant contributor, even making just one three-pointer, dishing the ball for seven assists, while converting 7 of 12 shots. Mickael Pietrus toasted L.A. for 18 points and played physical with Kobe and the Magic double-teams were better timed, making Bryant less effective.

Game 3’s total was Over and oddsmakers adjusted upward, raising the figure to 201.5. This is potentially swell news for Orlando backers, with the Magic 12-3 ATS at home game when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Van Gundy’s team needs to set the tempo and they are 12-4 UNDER at Amway Arena after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The Lakers like-wise have to bring aggressiveness shown in four prior games, to first conflict in Orlando and are 13-3 UNDER off a road loss this year, winning by an average of over eight points per contest.

Game 4 will come down to adjustments and execution, though bettors might just want to ride the tide with underdog 7-1 ATS and the OVER 6-0 in Florida when these two clubs meet.

NBA: Can Orlando closeout Cavs at home? (8:35 PM ET, TNT)
2009-05-29

From sweaty t-shirts printed, to songs from Cold World and Non Phixion, the story is all the same – Refuse to Lose. That is what the Cleveland Cavaliers did at home and they live to play again in Game 6 in Orlando. The chief architect was a familiar face, LeBron James and while he deserves the king’s share of credit, he hardly did it by himself this time. His team will look to force a deciding Game 7 contest on Monday with a win in Orlando Saturday night. The Magic opened as a 2-point favorite at Sportsbook. Follow the line and betting action right up until tip-time.
The focus on news outlets was James triple-double; however this time he had comrades in arms, who were ready to seize the moment. LeBron was also helped by the fact his coach Mike Brown, made adjustments prior to the game, which kept the Magic off-balance and could play into how long this Eastern Final continues.

Cleveland started the game with best ball movement of the series, having all five players on the floor involved and it paid immediate dividends with both Mo Williams and Delonte West making shots and restoring their confidence. Of course with Orlando, take nothing for granted and by halftime, the Cavaliers 17-point lead had melted faster than a Disney snow cone in June, with Cleveland up by just a single point after 24 minutes.

The third quarter was back and forth, with Orlando showing why they were 17-4 ATS playing as underdog coming into Game 5 and held slim one digit lead after three quarters.

With Cleveland 6-1 ATS in last seven games after breaking century mark in points, it was James will that did not allow his team to lose. After receiving much credit for guarding LeBron well, Orlando’s Mickael Pietrus more resembled Wally Szczerbiak trying to contain James. When LeBron needed to score he did, when he needed to find open shooter, he did and this time his teammates responded.

Coach Brown added a new offense wrinkle that widened the area James had at the top of the key, giving him more freedom to roam than a person wanting breakfast at dinner time at IHOP. This spacing prevented effective Orlando double-teams and set up Cleveland shooters to “walk into” shots in rhythm. Because of how effective this adjustment worked, coach Ron Jeremy, whoops, Stan Van Gundy will have to come up with an answer to counter, otherwise this series heads back to Cleveland.

The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover four of their last five contests against the spread since 2007, winning by almost six points a game (5.8). Coach Brown and James, have their fingers crossed the Cavs guards have rediscovered shooting touch and reserve Daniel Gibson can come off the bench and supply double digits again. Cleveland is a two-point underdog at Sportsbook.com, with a total of 193, easily the highest of the series. The Cavs are 14-4 ATS after scoring 110 points or more and seemed resigned to the fact they have to outscore Orlando, rather than out-defend them.

This will be the Magic’s second opportunity in the postseason to clinch series at Amway Arena, having failed in same spot against Boston. Orlando is 10-1 ATS at home after a loss by 10 points or more and 14-2 against the spread in downtown Orlando after allowing 110 points or more two straight games. The Magic will have to bring sterner defense, as Cavs shot 50 percent from the field and the three-balls. Dwight Howard needs more than 10 attempts and he has to be more assertive on offensive glass then snagging three boards.

Rashard Lewis can’t be so passive and Rafer Alston can’t miss nine of 10 shots. Coach Van Gundy must talk about ball movement, since Orlando had as many assists (12) as LeBron did.

Game 6 should be fascinating on TNT starting at 8:35 Eastern and totals players; here is a sterling system to consider - Play OVER when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points in the sixth game of a playoff series. (22-4, 84.6 percent L13Y)

NBA: Lakers stir pot, try to chew up Nuggets (9:00 PM ET, ABC)
2009-05-29

It turned out to be true; Kobe Bryant of the Lakers really does have teammates that want to win and are willing to put forth the effort to do so. Because Kobe finally was comforted with company, Los Angeles is within one game of return trip to NBA Finals, though not without a little controversy along the way, which makes for good playoff fodder. After reading more about this Game 6 Western Conference Finals encounter, be sure to head right over to the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for the latest info to make sure you’re on the right side of the wagering action.

An anonymous member of the Denver Nuggets told the Denver Post, "The Lakers paid $50,000 to win that game," he said. "They got their money's worth." He was referring to 25 grand in fines David Stern’s minions handed out to coach Phil Jackson and the Lakers organization for comments after Game 4.

Denver’s George Karl lamented essentially, the squeaky wheel gets taken care of and the Lakers got the benefit of calls for critical Game 5. Evidently Karl has no sense of history, since this coaching showmanship has gone on since Eddie Gottlieb’s Philadelphia Warriors defeated the Chicago Staggs to win first ever NBA title in 1947.

Having watched the entire game with no sound (don’t ask, just trust it made sense to me), I never got the sense the officiating was one-sided. I did however take note that Denver stopped taking the ball to the rim in the fourth quarter and was 5 for 21 shooting in last 12 minutes. I also noticed the strong interior defense of Denver completely fell apart in the fourth quarter, as the Lakers ran screens to set up isolation plays and scored six baskets that I recall within three feet of basket.

The first 17 minutes of the game was played like any regular season game, as neither team was emotionally involved, until both teams had manufactured exciting dunks, which revved up the crowd and the emotions of players.

Lamar Odom, showed why he can be the difference between L.A. being among the best teams, to NBA champs when he adds 19 points, 14 rebounds and 4 blocks. Derek Fisher tossed in a dozen points and though he saw limited minutes, Andrew Bynum contributed when on the floor. In fact, the Lakers bench outscored the Denver reserves 34-26, which is telling, with final margin of victory nine points.

Denver is 17-7 ATS revenging a road loss and is backed into corner. The Nuggets never matched the same intensity they had the first two games in La-La Land, even as they built seven-point lead midway thru the third quarter. This was proven as they had no answer to blunt Lakers rush that saw them run off 23 of next 28 points to wrestle control of contest. The Lakers finally challenged Karl’s troops with unfamiliar style, playing intense defense.

The Lakers enter Game 6 as five-point underdogs and are 8-3 ATS when Sportsbook.com or another oddsmaker places them in that position. Only one game has exceeded the total in West Finals and Los Angeles is 9-1 UNDER in conference finals. Denver is 7-0 against the number off a straight up loss and is 8-1 ATS as home favorites. Of the last 12 games the Nuggets have played against winning teams, 10 have gone UNDER the number.

It’s do-or-die for Carmelo Anthony and mates, and as the Lakers have shown, they don’t necessarily have the killer instinct to polish off opponent. If should be quite an atmosphere at the Pepsi Center, with Denver trying to avoid falling to 3-11 ATS when trailing in playoff series and head back to downtown Los Angeles for Sunday showdown.