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NBA: Top NBA Weekend Power Trends 3/12-3/14
2010-03-12

It’s Selection Sunday weekend in college hoops but in the pro’s the action is heating up as well. In the Eastern Conference the race for the last four seeds in the playoffs figures to come down to the end, with the 5th through 9th place teams separated by just 3-1/2 games at the outset of this weekend. In the West, the eight teams that will likely make up the postseason bracket have separated themselves from the future lottery teams, but still there is a ton to be decided in terms of seedings. While naturally the NBA takes a backseat to the March Madness at this time of year, there is still money to be made, and utilizing Top StatFox Power Trends can help you do so. Read on for a quick look at the weekend action plus the list of top angles to utilize over the next few days.

With all of the college conference tournament action on Friday, there is no ESPN doubleheader this week in the NBA. Still, there are 12 games to choose from, including one between a pair of hot inter-conference foes, Utah and Milwaukee. The Jazz have reached 20-games over .500 by winning and covering their last four games. Against East teams, they are 17-6 SU & 16-6-1 ATS. However, Milwaukee has won 10 of 11 games and is 9-0-2 ATS in that span, and has climbed to a 2-game lead for the 5th spot in the East standings. Amazingly, with 12 games being played the Jazz-Bucks game and that between the Suns and Lakers in Phoenix are the only two featuring teams that would be playoff clubs right now. In that latter game, L.A. is a 2-point road favorite and trying to snap out of a funk that finds them as just 6-4 SU & 2-8 ATS in their L10 games. The Suns could be a lively home dog, boasting a record of 14-4 ATS in their L18 games overall, and owning a 15-point win in their only other occasion as home dogs this season, also versus L.A. Elsewhere on Friday, Cleveland, Denver, and Portland will be in action as road favorites versus conference foes.

On Saturday, there are seven games on tap, including two featuring more of the league’s hottest teams. In one, the Orlando Magic will travel to our nation’s capital to take on the skidding Wizards. In one of the ultimate battles of hot vs. not, the Magic will put their seven game winning streak on the line against a Wizards team that has lost five in a row and is in the midst of a stretch of playing five games in seven days. However, Washington, while 13-20 ATS at home overall, is a respectable 9-9 ATS as a home dog. Dallas, winners of its L13 games, looks for #14 in what should be a likely victory against the Knicks at home. Be careful though, despite the recent surge, the Mavericks remain just 8-24 ATS on the home court. New York continues to flounder, 20-games below .500.

Sunday’s board features the best games of the weekend, with two on national TV. In the first, Eastern Conference contenders square off in Cleveland when the Cavaliers welcome Boston to town. Of late, only one of the teams is playing like a top shelf team however, that being the Cavs. In fact, the Celtics are just 4-4 in their last eight games and have fallen to the 4th spot in the playoff standings. The Cavs are the league’s top team at 50-15, including 28-4 at home. Interestingly, the road team has won and covered both games between these teams this season. A bit later at night, Toronto will be in Portland on NBA TV. The Raptors are on a 1-7 skid headed into a weekend which features back-to-back games on the West coast versus the Warriors and Blazers. At the same time, the Blazers have come alive with seven wins in 10 games to grab control of the #8 spot in the West. Other key games between playoff contenders on Sunday include Charlotte at Orlando, Utah and Oklahoma City, and New Orleans at Phoenix.

Now, here is a look at those Top StatFox Power Trends for the weekend:

Friday, 03/12/2010
(803) CLEVELAND vs. (804) PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 90.1, OPPONENT 102.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(807) CHICAGO vs. (808) MIAMI
CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) in road games vs. marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. The average score was CHICAGO 100.6, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 2*)

(809) NEW YORK vs. (810) MEMPHIS
NEW YORK is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in road games vs good offensive teams scoring 99+ PPG over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 106.1, OPPONENT 110.9 - (Rating = 2*)

(819) UTAH vs. (820) MILWAUKEE
UTAH is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. The average score was UTAH 105.9, OPPONENT 95.8 - (Rating = 3*)

(819) UTAH vs. (820) MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) in non-conference games this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 103.3, OPPONENT 104.7 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday, 03/13/2010
(507) LA CLIPPERS vs. (508) SAN ANTONIO
LA CLIPPERS are 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) vs. good teams (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in 2nd half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 93.7, OPPONENT 109.6 - (Rating = 3*)

(509) NEW JERSEY vs. (510) HOUSTON
NEW JERSEY is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 93.3, OPPONENT 106.3 - (Rating = 3*)

(511) NEW YORK vs. (512) DALLAS
DALLAS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was DALLAS 102.4, OPPONENT 100.6 - (Rating = 2*)

(513) TORONTO vs. (514) GOLDEN STATE
TORONTO is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 99, OPPONENT 108.3 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 03/14/2010
(871) INDIANA vs. (872) MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 23-5 ATS (+17.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 101.9, OPPONENT 95 - (Rating = 4*)

(873) BOSTON vs. (874) CLEVELAND
BOSTON is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 96.6, OPPONENT 96.9 - (Rating = 2*)

(877) CHARLOTTE vs. (878) ORLANDO
CHARLOTTE is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in road games vs. good teams (Win% 60%-70%) in 2nd half of season since '96. The average score was CHARLOTTE 91.7, OPPONENT 106.8 - (Rating = 2*)

(881) NEW ORLEANS vs. (882) PHOENIX
NEW ORLEANS is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ PPG over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 98.1, OPPONENT 104.8 - (Rating = 2*)

NBA: Chicago at Orlando on TNT
2010-03-11

In their last two games, the surging Orlando Magic posted wins against one of the league’s best teams and one of the worst. Their next opponent is playing more like the latter. The Magic look to win their season-high seventh straight game Thursday night when they host the slumping Chicago Bulls. The Magic are listed as a heavy 12.5-point favorite at Sportsbook.com.

Orlando (45-20, 32-39-4 ATS) has matched its longest win streak of the season, giving itself a small cushion over Boston for the second seed in the Eastern Conference. It still trails first-place Cleveland by five games. The Magic beat the Lakers on Sunday in an NBA finals rematch and followed that victory with a 113-87 rout of the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday.

Orlando led by 26 points at the half and cruised the rest of the way. Dwight Howard, who finished with 22 points and 15 rebounds, did most of his damage in the first half, going into the break with 18 points and 11 rebounds. “I liked the way we approached the game coming off a big win the other night,” coach Stan Van Gundy said. “There was no letdown, especially in the second half.” The Magic have covered five of their last seven home games.

The Magic have a good chance at extending their winning streak against a Chicago team that has lost five in a row (0-5 ATS). Orlando hasn’t won seven straight (4-2 ATS) since Jan. 6-17, 2009.

Improved production from point guard Jameer Nelson has provided a boost for the Magic, winners of five straight at home. Nelson is averaging 12.6 points this season, but 16.4 in the last 10 games. He had 17 points and eight assists Tuesday, shooting 3 of 5 from 3-point range. Nelson and the Magic will try to take advantage of the Bulls’ defensive struggles. Chicago equaled its longest losing streak of the season Tuesday with its fifth straight defeat, 132-108 to Utah. It was the most points the team has allowed this season.

The Bulls (31-32, 30-31-2 ATS) are giving up 115.0 points per game during the skid and their last two opponents have averaged 127.0 points and shot 55.3 percent. All of those losses came without defensive presence Joakim Noah, who is out with plantar fasciitis. Chicago is 5-10 ATS after allowing 100 or more points, including failing to cover last five in a row.

Howard will look again to dominate inside with Noah sidelined. He had 18 points and 14 rebounds in 25 minutes of a 107-87 win Feb. 10 with Noah out. In the previous matchup with Noah in the lineup, Howard was held to nine points and 12 rebounds in a 101-93 loss Jan. 2.

Thursday continues a difficult stretch for Chicago, which in a tight battle with five teams for the final four playoff spots in the East. The Bulls play their next four on the road and their next five opponents are all playoff contenders. “It’s the NBA, you can always change things around,” said Derrick Rose, who had 25 points and 13 assists Wednesday. “Now we go on the road for two big games. We need them.” The Bulls are 19-14 and 15-15-3 ATS on the road and have covered five of last six against teams with winning home records.

It won’t help, however, if the Bulls don’t have Luol Deng, who sat out the fourth quarter with a strained right calf. He was scheduled to undergo an MRI before Thursday’s game. Deng is second on Chicago, averaging 18.0 points and 7.3 rebounds.

Sportsbook.com has Orlando as decided favorites, however they have been unsafe bet on Thursday’s of late, failing to cover four in a row and are merely 2-7-1 ATS off a win by double digits. Chicago on the other hand is 6-2-1 ATS after a butt-whuppin’ of 10 or more points at home and is 9-4 UNDER facing teams with winning records.

The Bulls, who haven’t lost six straight since Nov. 14-24, 2006, have lost four in a row (1-3 ATS) in Orlando by an average of 19.3 points. This TNT matchup starts at 8:00 Eastern and the last five meeting have played UNDER east of Disney World.
The StatFox Power Line shows Orlando by 16 , indicating oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com might not have given the Magic enough credit.

T-Wolves are brutal; the system they fall into is not
2010-03-10

It’s another play out the season campaign for Minnesota, with a well deserved 14-50 record , ranking 23rd in field goal percentage at 44.9 percent and 25th in field goal percentage defense at 47.5. About the only good news, if someone wants to call it that, is the Timberwolves are 32-32 against the spread, however losing by 9.8 points per game suggests more disinterested opponents not covering the spread than Minnesota bringing something positive to the party. On Wednesday, the Wolves play host to the Nuggets and the game is accompanied by an incredible FoxSheets system on the total. Sportsbook.com has this number set at 216.

The basketball gods toyed with the T-Wolves, allowing them to win and cover four games in a row from Jan. 29 – Feb. 6, giving them a false sense of turning their season around. That ended up being similar to a 70 degree day in Minneapolis in February, nice, but reality will soon be coming back to normal.

Minnesota has gone on to lose 12 of next 13 contests, including the last six in a row. In this deplorable stretch, the Timberwolves have surrendered 115.9 point per game, a full 9.2 points above their 29th ranked scoring defense that has allowed 106.7 PPG on the entire season. The high water mark or lowest point if you will was last contest against Dallas, where they conceded 125 points in losing by 13, making it their fourth consecutive Over game.

Tonight’s opponent Denver is No. 1 in the Northwest Division, third in the Western Conference and second in the NBA in scoring at 107.6 points per game.
Sportsbook.com has announced the Nuggets as eight-point favorite, with a total of 216. Throw all of this information into the “Big Brain Machine” and this is what you get.
Play the Over when the total is greater than or equal to 200, the home team is off a home loss by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage under 25 percent, playing a team with a winning record.

Sports betting losers are always thinking sports is fixed (have you ever heard somebody that wins at sporting betting say the games are fixed, oh that’s right, they are in on it) and wish they could be on part of the action. While intelligent sports bettors knows there is no such thing as a “lock”, they have a complete understanding of finding information that puts the chances of winning on their side.
For example, the last five NBA seasons have seen this specific totals system produce a 21-1 record, that 95.4 percent if you are keeping score at home. The average total score of this particular system is 220.5 points per game (well above tonight’s matchup), dating back to 1996.

If you want to look at one NBA game today, be sure to break this one down.

NBA: Boston at Milwaukee (8:00 PM ET, FSN)
2010-03-09

After spending a month taking advantage of a schedule that included some of the league’s worst teams, the Milwaukee Bucks are one game into a stretch that sends three of the NBA’s best to the Bradley Center. They already turned back the LeBron-less Cavaliers on Saturday night. Up on Tuesday are the Boston Celtics, and Bucks are a 1-point home favorite according to Sportsbook.com.

A breakout performance from the struggling Brandon Jennings helped the Bucks top the team with the league’s best record, and they’ll look for a 10th win in 11 games Tuesday night as they try to snap the Boston Celtics’ four-game winning streak.

Milwaukee (33-29, 40-21-1 ATS) was three games out of the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot as of Jan. 26, but it has gone 15-4 and even more amazing 15-3-1 ATS since then to jump into fifth place. Of the Bucks’ first 14 victories in that stretch, 13 came against the bottom nine teams in the East. Only Miami, which Milwaukee beat three times, currently owns a winning record.

Visits from Cleveland, Boston (40-21, 26-34-1 ATS) and Utah in a seven-day stretch should give the Bucks a bigger challenge, but questions remained even after their first test. Jennings scored 25 points in a 92-85 victory Saturday over the league-best Cavaliers, who gave LeBron James a night off to rest his sore ankle.

“There’ll be people saying it was a great game and there’ll be other people saying well, LeBron didn’t play, if he would have played, they would have won,” said Andrew Bogut, who had 15 points and nine rebounds. “It’s a lose-lose situation for us.” The Bucks are 18-4 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.

Milwaukee can hope Jennings’ effort is the precursor of a personal turnaround. The rookie point guard had averaged 9.9 points and shot 29.7 percent since Feb. 1 before sparking the victory over Cleveland. Just three days earlier, after shooting 2 for 12 in a win over Washington, Jennings said he wasn’t even sure if wanted to continue taking shots.

That public display of frustration didn’t please coach Scott Skiles. “Right now, I’m playing for something bigger,” Jennings said after hitting five 3-pointers against the Cavaliers. “Main thing is get to playoffs, having the city start believing in us and keep going on from there.” Milwaukee hasn’t lost a game against the spread since Feb. 17 to Houston, accumulating 9-0-1 ATS mark.

If Milwaukee ends up in the postseason for the first time since 2006, it might find itself facing the Atlantic Division-leading Celtics in the first round. Boston is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in March after going 9-11 from Jan. 14-Feb. 27, but much like during the Bucks’ winning stretch, the competition has hardly been fierce.

The Celtics’ streak has been built against the teams currently occupying then 9th-12th spots in the East, and they had to battle back to beat Washington at home on Sunday night. Boston trailed 79-66 with 6:11 remaining before responding with a 20-4 closing run to secure an 86-83 win. Ray Allen had eight of his 25 points in the decisive stretch.

“We’ve lost so many of these where we played poorly and lost,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said. “It was nice to play poorly and win. I just wish we could have played the first 40 minutes, like we played the last eight.” Boston is 24-12 ATS after a win by six points or less over the last two seasons.

Boston lost its latest visit to Milwaukee last March 15 as Allen, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo combined to shoot 8 of 36. That was the Celtics’ only loss in the series’ last eight games (3-5 ATS). Kevin Garnett - who didn’t make a field goal Sunday for the first time in more than 14 years - had 25 points and nine rebounds in a 98-89 win at TD Garden on Dec. 8. Bogut had 25 points and 14 rebounds in the loss while committing a season-high seven turnovers. That was one of only three Milwaukee losses in 17 games in which Bogut has scored 20 points or more.

Sportsbook.com has the Bucks as a one-point home favorite with total of 188 and they are 11-3 ATS after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. Normally, Milwaukee and the word defense are not used in the same sentence, except for negative connotation. However, the Bucks are 10-2 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, winning by seven points per game this season. Boston definitely prefers to play at their own pace, with pale 2-12 ATS record versus teams averaging 83 or more shots a game since the beginning of the season and are 25-12 UNDER in road encounters when playing against a club with a winning record.

This Eastern Conference matchup is available in both local TV markets at 8:00 Eastern and Milwaukee is 14-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this campaign.

StatFox Power Line – Milwaukee by 7

NBA: Top NBA Weekend Power Trends 3/5-3/7
2010-03-05

I know it…it’s easy to forget about the NBA at this time of the year. March is about college basketball, right? Well, the savvy bettor acknowledges every opportunity he is given and takes advantage if the situation warrants. With that in mind, the NBA board is loaded with 26 games this weekend, at least six each day. This weekend’s Top StatFox Betting Trends piece should help you separate some of the strong plays from the weak. Read on for a look at some of the featured action over the next three days, plus the list of the top trends you’ll want to consider as you build your wagering lineup.

On Friday, the weekend is kicked off with 11 different games, two of which will make up the ESPN doubleheader. In the first one, the Cavaliers will host division rival, Detroit. For whatever reason, Cleveland was strangely NOT on TNT Thursday night so this won’t be a back-to-back situation. LeBron & Co. have won four straight games, both SU & ATS, as they begin consecutive games against Central Division foes. For the record, they are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in division play this season. The Pistons are 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in that scenario. In the late game, New Orleans and San Antonio will get together for the second time in five days, with the Hornets looking to avenge a 106-92 loss on Monday at home. The Spurs are still trying to figure things out this season and despite being 10-games over .500, are just 7-14 ATS in their L21 games. Elsewhere, the red-hot Bucks will be in Washington, sporting an 18-3-1 ATS mark in their L22 games, including a 100-87 win over the Wizards on Wednesday. Also, watch for the Lakers in Charlotte, and the Mavericks, winners of their last nine games, hosting Sacramento.

On Saturday, there are nine games to choose from, including several with teams in back-to-back scenarios. Two that I mentioned earlier, the Bucks and Cavaliers, will go head-to-head in Milwaukee. HC Scott Skiles’ team boasts a 10-6 SU & 12-3-1 ATS mark on zero days rest while the Cavs are just 6-9 ATS. Also on Saturday, Atlanta will visit Miami. The Heat are scuffling a bit again, having lost four straight ATS. They are also just 12-17 ATS at home, plus 4-10 SU & 5-9 ATS on the back end of back-to-back’s. In Memphis, the Spurs will come calling, with the Grizzlies trailing San Antonio by four games in the Western Conference standings.

Sunday is once again national TV day in the NBA, with three games set for the tube. On ABC at 2:30 PM ET, the Lakers will take on the Magic in Orlando. Obviously, the Lakers are in good shape in the West, leading the conference standings by 5-1/2 games entering the weekend over Dallas. However, HC Phil Jackson has to be concerned about this trend going forward: LA LAKERS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 94.9, OPPONENT 98.1 - (Rating = 1*). The Magic are playing well again and have lost just six times at home this season. A bit later on ESPN, Boston will host Washington. The Celtics are not playing well of late but did turn back Charlotte by 24 points on Wednesday and could be ready to turn the corner. Wrapping up the night are Portland and Denver. The Blazers boast a 4-1/2 game lead for the 8th and final playoff spot out West and have come alive by winning five of six games. They will have been off since Wednesday and boast a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS mark when playing on 3+ days rest.

Now, here’s a look at those top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to consider in your wagering action this weekend:

Friday, 3/5/2010
(807) NEW YORK vs. (808) TORONTO
NEW YORK is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) revenging 2 straight losses where opp. scored >=100 points over last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 105.4, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 2*)

(809) BOSTON vs. (810) PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) at home vs. good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/g over the L3 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 95.7, OPPONENT 106.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(813) ORLANDO vs. (814) NEW JERSEY
ORLANDO is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 106.5, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)

(813) ORLANDO vs. (814) NEW JERSEY
ORLANDO is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) on Friday nights this season. The average score was ORLANDO 93.5, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)

(815) SACRAMENTO vs. (816) DALLAS
DALLAS is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was DALLAS 101.5, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 3/6/2010
(503) ATLANTA vs. (504) MIAMI
ATLANTA is 27-8 UNDER (+18.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 91.6, OPPONENT 93.3 - (Rating = 3*)

(505) NEW JERSEY vs. (506) NEW YORK
NEW JERSEY is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 92.3, OPPONENT 107 - (Rating = 4*)

(513) CLEVELAND vs. (514) MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 95.3, OPPONENT 102 - (Rating = 1*)

(517) INDIANA vs. (518) PHOENIX
PHOENIX is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) vs. poor teams outscored by 3+ PPG in 2nd half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 121.9, OPPONENT 106.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 3/7/2010
(803) LA LAKERS vs. (804) ORLANDO
LA LAKERS are 23-8 UNDER (+14.2 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 103.1, OPPONENT 93.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(807) WASHINGTON vs. (808) BOSTON
BOSTON is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ PPG this season. The average score was BOSTON 99.7, OPPONENT 95.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(807) WASHINGTON vs. (808) BOSTON
WASHINGTON is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 93.8, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 4*)

(811) PORTLAND vs. (812) DENVER
DENVER is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DENVER 107.6, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 1*)

NBA: Utah at Phoenix (10:30 PM ET, TNT)
2010-03-05

As two of the Western Conference’s best home teams, it’s safe to say the Utah Jazz and the Phoenix Suns will be going all out to try to lock up home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Three head-to-head meetings over the final six weeks might determine if either one can secure it. The Suns look for an eighth win in nine games overall and a sixth straight victory at US Airways Center on Thursday night when they host the Jazz in a potential first-round playoff preview. Phoenix is a slight 1.5-point favorite at Sportsbook.com and getting the lion’s share of support from bettors.

Phoenix (39-24, 36-26-1 ATS) went nearly two months (Dec. 1-Jan. 26) without winning three in a row after three separate four-game winning streaks during the first month of the season, but has gotten back on track of late.

One game out of a playoff spot on Jan. 27, the Suns have since gone 13-3 to pull into the West’s No. 5 slot - one-half game behind Utah (38-22, 36-21-3 ATS). They’ve won seven of eight (8-0 ATS) and have limited opponents to 92.0 points per game - 11.2 below their season average - while winning five straight at home. Phoenix has the fifth best record against the spread in the NBA and is 9-1 ATS playing against a team with win percentage of 60-70% this season.

Don’t think the Suns have suddenly turned into the Pat Riley coached Knicks of the 1990’s, with strictly defensive focus; they still lead the league in points scored at 109.4 points per game. The scorching Suns are heating up the opposition on a current 14-2 spread run.

While the Suns embarrassed the Clippers on their home floor, Utah was unable to do the same Monday. The Jazz fell behind Los Angeles by 17 points in the fourth quarter. They mounted a late rally, but came up short and lost 108-104.

Utah fell to 6-10 in games decided by five points or fewer (6-9-1 ATS), with three of those defeats coming in Jerry Sloan’s club’s last five games. “You’re going to have 10 or 15 games that you look back on after the season and say maybe you should have won those,” Sloan said. “But the other teams have those games as well, so you can’t worry about those games once they’re over. I automatically forget - because I can’t remember.” It is however worth remembering the Jazz are 11-2 ATS off a road loss this season.

Deron Williams has been in a shooting slump, but he’s not having trouble finding his teammates. Williams has had 10 consecutive double-digit assist games overall, and six in a row against Phoenix. Utah arrives in downtown Phoenix 15-5 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this campaign.

Sportsbook.com has Utah as 1.5-point underdog with total of 213 and they are 10-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Suns low number appears off a bit since they have the fourth best spread mark of 17-12-1 on their home floor, however, that is essentially negated with the Jazz 16-11-1 ATS. The Suns are brimming with confidence and are 11-2 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 99 or more points a game in the second portion of the schedule.

These teams meet again in Phoenix on March 19 before closing the regular season in Salt Lake City on April 14. Tonight’s tilt is on TNT starting around 10:35 Eastern and the Suns are 11-0 OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival over the last two seasons. The StatFox Power Line shows Phoenix by 3

NBA: Denver tries to erase short skid
2010-03-03

After coming up empty in a pair of road games, the Denver Nuggets are probably looking forward to staying at home for a few days. Awaiting them in their return, however, will be one of the NBA’s hottest teams. The Nuggets will try to avoid matching their longest losing streak of the season Wednesday night against the Oklahoma City Thunder, winners of 12 of 14 (9-5 ATS). Sportsbook.com shows the Nuggets as 7.5-point favorites, with a total of 207.5.

During a two-game trip to face the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix, Denver (39-21, 28-29-3 ATS) suffered consecutive defeats for the first time since dropping three straight from Dec. 25-28. After falling 95-89 to the Western Conference-leading Lakers, the Nuggets lost 101-85 to the Suns on Monday night.

The Nuggets built a nine-point lead after one quarter but couldn’t recover after getting outscored 33-11 over the next 12 minutes, recording their lowest point total for any quarter this season. Star forward Carmelo Anthony missed 14 of 21 shots overall and finished with 17 points for his lowest output since Dec. 27. Denver is 4-12 ATS playing their third game in four days this season.

“We’re not happy now but a week from now, hopefully after we win a few home games, we will be happy,” coach George Karl said.

Winning the opener of their three-game homestand would probably make Karl very happy considering how his team performed in its previous meeting with the Thunder (36-23, 35-24 ATS) on Jan. 29. The Nuggets shot 40.3 percent while getting blown out 101-84 and the Thunder connected at a 51.9 percent clip as they snapped a five-game slide in the series. Kevin Durant scored 30 points and shot 12 for 19.
That was the first of 12 wins in a stretch of 14 games for Oklahoma City, which continued the surge with a 113-107 victory over Sacramento on Tuesday night and they are 19-10 ATS on the road this season.

Durant once again led Oklahoma City with 39 points, the 32nd time in 33 games he’s had at least 25. The All-Star forward has also scored at least 30 points in his last six meetings with Denver, averaging 32.3. However, Durant wasn’t completely pleased with the Thunder’s performance against the Kings after they allowed an opponent to reach the century mark for only the sixth time in 21 games.

“We’re satisfied with the win. Of course, we didn’t play the way we wanted to, but you’re going to have games like that,” Durant said. “I think that we did a better job of responding to that and coming out and scoring points and getting everybody involved, and we got stops when we needed them.” Oklahoma City is 21-11 ATS facing a team with a winning record this season.

The Thunder, winners of five of six on the road (3-3 ATS), hasn’t won in Denver since relocating to Oklahoma City from Seattle. The franchise has dropped five straight (three covers) at the Pepsi Center since March 28, 2007, including a 102-93 defeat Dec. 14. Anthony scored 31 points in that win and has averaged 30.8 points in the last six matchups with the Thunder, but an ankle injury kept him out of the loss in Oklahoma City in January.

The Nuggets bench could be a little thin in Wednesday’s game with reserves Chris Andersen (chronic patella tendinitis) and Ty Lawson (sprained left thumb) dealing with injuries, nevertheless they are 6.5-point favorites with total of 207 at Sportsbook.com. Denver is 23-12 ATS revenging a same season loss and 31-14 ATS against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two years. Oklahoma City is a sharp 14-6 ATS as a road underdog, losing by less than a point per game this season.

This game is available at 9:00 Eastern in local markets and these teams have played OVER eight of last 10 contests.

The StatFox Power Line shows Denver by 3, well short of Sportsbook.com’s pointspread, perhaps indicating value on the Thunder.

NBA: Cavaliers at Celtics Betting Matchup
2010-02-26

The Cleveland Cavaliers ended their three game losing streak with a 105-95 non-cover over New Orleans Tuesday, next up is to a end losing skid that goes back years. Cleveland has made nine trips to Boston and has come up on the short end of the score each time. The last time the Cavs (44-14, 28-29-1 ATS) won at TD Garden was Jan. 3, 2007 and they are 6-3 ATS in those visits, which is little consolation unless you are a sports bettor. Cleveland is favored at Sportsbook.com, making it an interesting decision for those wagering.

There has been a great deal of doom and gloom surrounding Cleveland’s recent slide and the fact they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven, but a certain high profile Cavs player tries to put things into perspective.

“There are 82 games in the regular season. You’ll have ups and downs,” said LeBron James. “We’ve had way more ups than downs. We have the best record in the Eastern Conference and one of the best records in the league. You can go two or three games where you don’t win a game. That’s not our worries.”

Cleveland’s recent struggles have had to do with defense. Coach Mike Brown’s squad prior to last game had allowed 100 or more points in five of previous six contests. Before this, the Cavs surrendered that many points over a span of 26 games, showing the decline in effort. They will seek reversal and are 8-4 ATS off a victory.

Like anything in life, it could be worse, like being a loyal Boston Celtics (36-19, 21-33-1 ATS) bettor. Boston has won four of its last five, but for Celtics backers, betting the C’s is similar to getting a hot stock tip that the Hummer is coming back strong, with 8-18-1 ATS record since Dec. 27.

General Manager Danny Ainge was being barbequed in Boston until he made the bold moves to bring in Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, which restored Celtics pride and brought a championship. This would have never happened had Boston lost the top pick in the draft in the lottery, which would have brought Kevin Durant and the Celtics would more likely resemble Oklahoma City, than the current model.

Like most GM’s in the NBA, do one thing right and you have a free pass for years. Ainge thought Rasheed Wallace would be good fit for the green and white and he probably more than any other player exemplifies what is wrong with Boston this season and in part explains why they are 3-8 ATS off a SU win.

No question injuries have played a part in Boston’s season and Paul Pierce is doubtful for this evening. The Celtics are 6-18-1 ATS at home and 1-7-1 ATS with a day between contests.

Sportsbook.com has Cleveland as 1.5-point faves and they are 7-3 ATS with one day of rest and they are 5-1-1 OVER this month after scoring 100 or more points. Boston has covered 17 of last 25 Thursday assignments and is 20-8 UNDER on this day of the week going back even further.

This confrontation of Eastern powers begins just after 8:00 in the East time zone and the home team is 16-1 SU, though just 8-8-1 ATS in previous 17 meetings. The StatFox Power Line shows the wrong team is favored: Boston by 1