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NBA News
NBA Free Agency 2010
2010-07-07
The NBA free agency frenzy has officially begun, promising to alter the course of the NBA for the next decade. After much analysis, here are some predictions about where this year’s top players will end up.
LeBron James- Whatever James decides, it will ultimately cause a huge ripple effect. He has saved his last two free agent visits for what are likely his top two candidates: Cleveland and Chicago. It’ll be a very tough decision but in the end, I see another heartbreak for Cleveland’s sports fans as James signs with the Bulls. They simply give him a better opportunity to win championships. It also doesn’t hurt that he’d be able to play in the same place as his idol, Michael Jordan.
Chris Bosh- Bosh won’t be going back to Toronto so it will be intriguing to see if he tries to leverage a sign-and-trade in order to maximize his earning potential. Bosh’s Toronto teams never did very well so he’s going to want to go to a team that has excellent pieces in place to support him and ultimately challenge for a championship. Look for Bosh to follow James to Chicago and reap the benefits of an extremely talented nucleus already in place.
Dwyane Wade- Don’t be fooled by these meetings with other teams; Wade will be returning to Miami. After trying to pull off a coup and bring James and Bosh to Miami (which will ultimately be unsuccessful) Wade will continue to actively recruit other free agents to help Miami return to their championship ways of 2006.
Dirk Nowitzki- This is another player who, barring unforeseen circumstances, will return to his former team. Nowitzki has an outstanding relationship with owner Mark Cuban and the city of Dallas and merely opted out of his contract so he could maximize his earning potential. Nevertheless, Nowitzki is likely pleading with Cuban to make a splash in free agency and push Dallas over the top after past postseason shortcomings. They won’t be able to pull off a sign-and-trade for James, a player Cuban covets, but in a class as deep as this one there are many other possibilities.
Amare Stoudemire- Stoudemire’s choice will ultimately come down to Phoenix and Miami. Although he has enjoyed great success in Phoenix’s system, rumor has it that negotiations have stalled. It can’t help that Steve Nash in aging and this team’s championship window appears to be closing. Although not Miami’s first choice for an interior player, negotiations will heat up after James and Bosh sign in Chicago. It may take a while but Stoudemire will ultimately sign with Miami after seeing the benefits to forming an inside-outide duo with Wade in South Beach.
Joe Johnson- Johnson is another one of those players whose free agency is complicated by other elite free agents. Although an outstanding player and likely maximum contract recipient, he lags behind James at his position and is looked at as a plan B for many teams. He has already been offered a maximum contract by Atlanta and their interest in him is unequivocal. However, after years of playing on mediocre teams, the guess is he’ll ultimately opt for a change of scenery. The Knicks have already spoken with him and appear to have their sights firmly set on him if (and when) James gets away. The lure of a new venue and playing in the glitzy New York market will be too much for any other team to overcome in the Joe Johnson sweepstakes.
David Lee- Lee is one of the most underrated players in the NBA and has been a pillar of consistency for the Knicks during turbulent times. He will get many looks from other teams, likely including the New Jersey Nets, but the Knicks will ultimately view him as too valuable to let go. He’d get much more help with the addition of Johnson.
Carlos Boozer- Boozer has been a very consistent, rugged player for the Jazz but it appears that they aren’t willing to pay the contract he’ll command and are content with letting Paul Milsap take his spot at power forward. Boozer could truly end up anywhere, potentially in a sign-and-trade. Rumors are starting to grow that this will indeed be what happens, with Boozer going to Orlando and the Jazz receiving compensation. The Eastern Conference is going to be rapidly improved next year and the Magic need to keep up in the arms race. Boozer would help them achieve this and would give Dwight Howard excellent help on the interior. Are you getting ready for the upcoming NBA season? With so many players moving around NBA betting will be more exciting than ever. Head over to www.sportsbook.com the home of NBA betting.
NBA Western Conference Semi-Finals Preview
2010-05-06
For the third straight year, the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers will meet up in the NBA Playoffs. Two years ago, the Lakers advanced to the Western Conference Finals with a 4-2 series win over the Jazz. Last season, Los Angeles needed only five games to knock out Utah in the first round. On Sunday, the two clubs will vie again in the postseason in Game 1 of the series at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. The Lakers were tested to begin the playoffs by the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder. A follow-up basket by forward Pau Gasol with under a second to play enabled LA to finish off the Thunder with a 95-94 victory in Game 6 at Oklahoma City on Friday. The short-handed Jazz pulled a mild upset to reach this round by handling the fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets in six games. Despite playing without two starters, Utah played inspired basketball to advance to the conference semi-finals. In the regular season, the Lakers won three of its four meetings against the Jazz. All three victories by Los Angeles were by 14 points or more. The Lakers are building faith back in NBA bettors. But can they continue? Get over to www.sportsbook.com where they have all the NBA lines for you to bet on.
Utah will attempt to pull the upset over Los Angeles with one of the best guard-forward combos in the league. Guard Deron Williams (19 points, 11 assists per game during regular season) and forward Carlos Boozer (20 points, 11 rebounds per game during regular season) are a potent duo for the Jazz. Both players stepped up against the Nuggets as Williams averaged 26 points per game while Boozer added 23 points per outing. However, some injuries have limited the club's supporting cast heading into this series. Center Mehmet Okur (14 points, 7 rebounds per game during regular season) is out for the rest of the season due to an injury. Forward Andrei Kirilenko (12 points per game during regular season) could return to action at some point during the series against the Lakers after missing the first round with an injury. Reserve forward Paul Millsap (17 points, 10 rebounds per game in series vs. Denver) has picked up the slack for Utah's injured frontcourt performers. Utah is a very efficient offensive team. The club shot 49% from the field during the regular season. On defense, opponents were held to under 45% shooting. Hall of Fame head coach Jerry Sloan is wrapping up his 22nd season with the Jazz. He is in the playoffs for the 19th time.
The defending NBA champion Lakers are just eight wins away from a third straight trip to the NBA Finals. As usual, guard Kobe Bryant (27 points per game during regular season) leads the Lakers attack. After shooting just 41% from the field against the Thunder, he will be looking for a more productive series against Utah. Gasol's arrival in Los Angeles two years ago enabled the Lakers to become an elite team. He produced another solid campaign in the 2009-10 season by averaging 18 points and 11 rebounds per outing. 22-year-old center Andrew Bynum (15 points, 8 rebounds per game during regular season) is still developing as a player but is capable of being a difference maker for the squad. The biggest change from last year's title club was the addition of veteran forward Ron Artest (11 points per game during regular season). The defensive specialist will be counted on to aid the Lakers to another championship during this year's postseason. While the Lakers don't shoot as well form the field as Utah, Los Angeles has more offensive weapons to work with than the Jazz. Like Utah, Los Angeles held its opponents to under 45% shooting from the field during the regular season. Los Angeles also has a Hall of Fame coach on the sidelines. Phil Jackson is looking for his 11th title ring. He won six championships with Michael Jordan in Chicago while adding four more with Bryant in Los Angeles. In his 19 seasons, Jackson has never missed the playoffs. He has also won at least 55 games in the regular season in 15 of his 19 years as a head coach in the league. In back-to-back NBA Finals matchups in 1997 and 1998, Jackson got the better of Sloan as Chicago defeated Utah in six games in each series.
NBA conferences still show disparity
2010-02-03
After a run of the East seemingly gaining ground over the past few years, the Western Conference has been superior this season. This is evidenced by the fact that the Eastern Conference has six teams with winning records (one is one game over .500) and the West has just four teams with losing records among its 15 members. Let’s dig into the details a little further and see if we can’t use any of the findings to profit on Wednesday’s NBA betting board. See all of the wagering options on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page.
One thing to consider this year besides the overall dominance once again, the wagering aspect comes into play more than one might think. The West holds a 160-122 SU (56.7%) edge in head-to-head competition against those from the other conference. It would make sense the West would also be grabbing most of the money when these teams meet, however their stranglehold ends up being a little tighter than traditional numbers. The West is 150-126-6 ATS, 54.3 percent, just over two percent off the SU winning percentage.
As to be expected there are winners and losers in each conference, thus let’s take a look at who is profiting and who is not on either side of the Mississippi River.
The two West squads that have taken everyone aback are up and comers Oklahoma City and Memphis. Unquestionably these are two young and talented teams who could change the dynamics of the Western Conference if they can keep their nucleus’ together while adding more quality to their rosters in the seasons to come. Each has grown this season by beating up the East. The Thunder is 16-6 SU and ATS, while the Grizzlies are 9-6 and 10-5 ATS. Oklahoma City in particular has been impressive in winning by 6.6 points per contest.
The Los Angeles Lakers have enjoyed the most non-conference success at 17-3, but most nights are fighting the oddsmakers for their supporters and are a fair 10-8-2 ATS. The other club that plays in the Staples Center is actually a better bet and has shown real signs of improvement despite lacking players they thought they could count on like No. 1 pick Blake Griffin and Kareem Rush, both injured all or most of the season. The Clippers are 11-8 and 12-6-1 ATS.
A number of other teams have winning records, however are not at least to this point an overwhelming wager. Denver has 13-6 (11-8 ATS) record, San Antonio 13-5 (10-8 ATS), Utah 13-6 (11-8 ATS) and Dallas is 14-5 with only 9-10 spread mark.
The biggest disappointments out West have been Houston at 5-9 ATS with six wins and Sacramento at 6-13 SU and ATS when they face teams from at least two zones away. Golden State may be 6-13, but their style of play leaves Eastern teams confounded and the Warriors are 11-7-1 ATS.
Not every East team is horrible versus the West, it just seems that way. Six Eastern teams have winning records against their Western counterparts; however a couple of those are a loss or two from being .500 or less straight up. For those laying down the cash, Atlanta is the best at 12-7 ATS with a 13-6 SU record. The Hawks are where Oklahoma City and Memphis envision themselves in a year or two or possibly sooner, a good team that has young veteran talent which still has an upside.
Cleveland is the best of the East bunch at 18-5, handing the Lakers two of their three Eastern defeats. Nonetheless, like L.A., oddsmakes often leave the Cavs too many points to overcome with a 13-10-1 ATS mark. Boston has a representative 10-6 record, but being a public team and injury-plagued are a crestfallen 4-11-1 ATS.
The lousy teams in the East are rotten pretty much against whomever they play. Here are their crummy numbers.
Philadelphia 7-14, 9-12 ATS
Washington 4-14, 7-10-1 ATS
Detroit 4-15, 7-12 ATS
Indiana 4-14, 6-12 ATS
You are probably wondering about New Jersey, because they have been so insufferable, thought the Nets deserved special mention at 1-19 and 5-15 ATS. Their Atlantic Division partner New York, is a sleepy 6-11 vs. the West, yet about even money bet at 9-8 ATS.
In conclusion, when East meets West, the teams in the Central and Eastern Time zones consistently come up short and are poor wagers.
NBA: Spurs and Mavericks in quick turnaround
2009-11-18
The NBA is back on ESPN Wednesday with a pair of games, the feature being a Western Conference showdown between rivals, San Antonio & Dallas. The Mavericks are a small 2-point home favorite, surprising for how well they are playing of late. Bettors at Sportsbook.com are sure to embrace the chalk here. Be sure to follow the breakdown on the BETTING TRENDS page before hitting the confirm button on your wagers.
The San Antonio Spurs have yet to win or cover on the road in three attempts, but should have some confidence playing an opponent they beat at home a week ago while short-handed. There’s little question that the surging Dallas Mavericks are confident after winning the final three games of a road trip. The Southwest Division rivals meet for the second time in eight days Wednesday night when the Mavericks begin a three-game homestand.
San Antonio (4-4 SU&ATS) has yet to win on the road and is 2-4 overall with Tony Parker and Tim Duncan in the lineup. Both superstars missed two victories last week before returning for Saturday’s 101-98 loss to Oklahoma City.
Richard Jefferson, acquired in an offseason trade with Milwaukee, had a season-low four points in 35 minutes after averaging 26.5 in the two games without Parker and Duncan. The newcomer feels it is difficult to judge the Spurs through eight games.
“We still haven’t played that many games together yet,” Jefferson said. “And I think everyone’s always looking for that 8-2 start, everything’s going great. Well that’s not how the NBA works sometimes.” Jefferson’s point is further proven with the Spurs 3-8 ATS facing a team with a winning record.
Jefferson’s best game with San Antonio came last Wednesday in a 92-83 win over Dallas (8-3 SU&ATS) with Parker and Duncan out. He scored 29 points in the first game between the rivals since the Mavericks eliminated the Spurs in five games in the first round of the playoffs last season. Playing Dallas again so soon gives this matchup a bit of a postseason feel.
“I played home-and-homes before with teams where you play them on a Friday and you turn around and play them back-to-back on a Saturday,” Jefferson said. “It’s interesting, but I think it’s good for us to get these good, competitive games against a quality team.”
The Mavericks have won and covered the spread three straight since that loss, winning 115-113 in overtime at Milwaukee on Monday. Dirk Nowitzki capped a 32-point, 11-rebound performance with the winning 18-foot jumper as time expired. “We feel fortunate,” coach Rick Carlisle said. “We played hard enough to deserve the game and they did too. It’s a great win for us and a tough loss for them.”
The winning streak has coincided with Carlisle inserting Rodrigue Beaubois into the lineup after the rookie did not see action last week against the Spurs. Beaubois is averaging 11.7 points on 63.6 percent (14 of 22) shooting.
Beaubois has formed a quality backcourt tandem with Jason Kidd, Jefferson’s former teammate at New Jersey. Kidd had a season-high 17 assists on Monday and his team is 5-1 SU and ATS in last six outings.
“This is a big win. … We’ve given some away and tonight, it was kind of looking like that, but we stayed involved and made some plays down the stretch,” Kidd said.
The short-handed Mavs lost forward Shawn Marion to a sprained left ankle in the second quarter. Owner Mark Cuban said Marion is day to day, but should be fine. In addition, Erick Dampier’s status is uncertain. The center was hospitalized after warmups ahead of Sunday night’s 95-90 victory in Detroit and Drew Gooden has posted two double-doubles in his place.
San Antonio is a splendid 8-0 ATS after their opponent scored 100 or more points in previous contest and they are 10-1 OVER following a SU loss. Dallas on the other hand is 10-3 ATS against teams with losing road records and 6-1 OVER playing with one day of rest.
ESPN will broadcast this Southwest Division tilt with the Mavs 5-2 ATS at home against the Spurs since April 15, 2007.
The StatFox Power Line shows Dallas by 6, perhaps a bit of an under-pricing by Sportsbook.com for a quality home team.
NBA: Philadelphia and Houston in Mega Matchups
2009-04-24
The 76ers and Rockets both made good on the proverbial “we’re just happy for split” statement to open their respective NBA series’. Each did so in different, yet dramatic fashion and now they have opportunity to not only maintain homecourt advantage, but start placing themselves in position to possibly upset higher seeds in first round of playoff basketball. There is one big difference in the prospects for these clubs however. Philadelphia is a rather sizeable 3.5-point underdog, while the Rockets are heavy 5.5-point favorites. Get the latest info on these games on the TEAM STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS pages before hitting the confirm button on your wagers.
Orlando at Philadelphia
The Sixers have covered both games in this series and they have proven unequivocally they can play with Orlando, in spite of closing the season so poorly. Philadelphia has shown if they double-down on Dwight Howard at just the right moment, they can limit his and Magic’s effectiveness in the half-court offense. Philadelphia has played with enough defensive energy to limit the effectiveness of Orlando guards and wing players for long stretches.
While it is evident Orlando has the better team; the Sixers have more athleticism and have used that to their advantage even after making bone-headed plays. Philly is less than intimidating 24-17 and 18-20-1 ATS at home and they are 11-22 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 99 or more points a game this season.
This is a young team that can be fueled by emotion, with Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young leading the way. They’ve learned in the first two games the Magic are not focused enough about playing hard for four quarters and can be had with steadier play. Orlando does present a different challenge on the road, where they are 27-14 SU and ATS. The Magic were not as magical at the end of the season in the bright blue uniforms, with .500 record in last ten tries.
Sportsbook.com has Philadelphia as 3.5-point home underdogs with a total of 191 and they are 10-3 ATS on the receiving end of 4.5 or fewer points at the Wachovia Center. Orlando is a slick 12-4 ATS in road games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season, but just 4-9 ATS as favorites in last 13 contests.
One thing to watch for has been the bizarre behavior of Magic coach Stan Van Gundy's courtside manner. Van Gundy has been incredibly frustrated, visibly berating players, which isn’t the brightest idea come playoff time. (Maybe their was more to Pat Riley taking over in Miami when they won the title than we heard) His actions and wild-eyed looks bring to mind the crazed looks of former Dallas coach Avery Johnson in the finals against the Heat, which ultimately became his demise.
If the 76ers can get Orlando off their game and play shoddy defense, they’ll pull the upset and improve to 39-17 ATS versus teams who average seven or less steals a game. This contest will be on ESPN2 starting at 8:05 Eastern.
Portland at Houston
Houston governed the opener of the series and didn’t play especially well in the second game, but still lost by only four, 107-103. Portland made a number of fine adjustments, both physically and mentally to even up series at one.
The Blazers doubled Yao Ming more frequently, fronting him with Joel Przybilla and having backside support from Greg Oden. Though Ming said he expected such tactics, he didn’t respond well to it, with 11 points and eight rebounds, while getting into foul trouble.
It's a combination," Rockets coach Rick Adelman said of the problems getting Yao touches. "He has to find a way to get position better. He has to find a way to hold their people off. And we have to have patience to look for him. We ran some stuff and he came in the middle with a guy on his back and we chucked it up there." Houston has covered five of last six off a straight up defeat.
Portland also brought a more aggressive outlook and it especially paid off for its two best players. Guard Brandon Roy was almost unstoppable with 42 points and LaMarcus Aldridge had 27 points and 12 rebounds.
Now we know what we have to do," Aldridge said. "We have to be physical with these guys and play with confidence." The Blazers are 26-10 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.
The chess match continues and it is Houston’s turn to make move. The effort will certainly have to be increase from Game 2, with Ming, Shane Battier and Luis Scola playing more like they did on the first contest. The Rockets are 19-10 ATS off one or more losses this season, winning by average of 7.3 points per game. They have to return to keeping Roy in virtual square-shaped defensive box on the floor, always having defender in his face and Scola has to reassert aggressiveness against Aldridge.
Houston’s a 5.5-point favorite, with total of 184.5. The Rockets have won 10 of last 11 (5-6 ATS) at Toyota Center against Portland and this could be defensive tussle. The Trailblazers are 12-4 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more and the Rockets are 11-3 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more this season. This Western Conference confrontation begins at 9:35 Eastern on ESPN.
NBA: The Memphis Grizzlies in Positive System!
2009-02-12
It’s another sorry season at 191 Beale Street in Memphis, with the Grizzlies at 15-36, having fired coach Marc Iavaroni and bringing in retread Lionel Hollins to work with an array of youngsters. However, they are on a roll of late and tonight will be backed by a powerful betting system against Philadelphia. Be sure to take in this angle before confirming your wagers.
Last season, the Memphis front office saw they were going nowhere and decided to start over. They traded Pau Gasol and Mike Miller and determined they would rebuild with a collection of players who were all very successful in college of Europe. The senior member of the team is Hakim Warrick, who is at the ripe old age of 25.
However, when these many young players are thrown together playing in the NBA, it doesn’t take long for the losses to pile up, especially playing in the Southwest Division, which has teams with bountiful experience. Iavaroni was on the Phoenix staff under Mike D’Antoni and was brought in with the promise of making the Grizzlies similar to the Suns. For the fans, the losses were expected, but at least be entertaining.
The losses mounted, Memphis was dull and in the process of a 1-13 January, the Grizzlies made a move to Hollins. While Hollins is highly regarded as an assistant, his head coaching skills have come into question in the past. Based on early results, he might have found the right type of team to allow his skills to shine.
Since flipping the calendar to February, Memphis has won four of five (4-1 ATS), actually playing defense. For most of the season, the Grizz have been the worst teams in the NBA in field goal defense. In three of their four wins, they have held the opposing to under 40 percent shooting, including under 30 percent in the last two wins over Toronto and New Orleans.
Maybe it's Hollins' mix of old-school discipline and common sense derived from his playing days. The Grizzlies are winning because their defense has improved, the offensive execution is better and the little things that win or lose games are being done to Hollins' satisfaction, giving Memphis a chance.
The last four games have been played at the FedEx Forum and now the test will be to play this well on the road against one of the hotter teams in the NBA, Philadelphia. The Sixers are 13-4 and 11-4-2 ATS since Jan. 6 and have moved over .500 at 26-24, into seventh position in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Philadelphia has allowed just 92.4 points per game in last 15 contests.
Philly is an 11-point home favorite, with total of 187, according to Sportsbook.com and is up against a rather severe system in the NBA.
Play On Underdogs of 10 or more points - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
The point this system is making is two teams have played very solid defense for a period of time. With the score expected to be lower, the double digit points might be too much for the favorite to surpass. This super situation is 27-5 ATS, 84.4 percent since 1996. This has been particularly sharp over the last three years at 10-1 ATS. Forget any money line action on Memphis, as the underdog is 4-28.
Nonetheless, the dog has been an extremely good wager and the average margin of the 32 games has been 7.3 points per game in this exact spot. Take a minute to consider this play.
NBA: The NBA on TNT Wagering Options (8:00 PM ET, TNT)
2008-11-21
The Detroit Pistons are getting back to their annoying ways, no, not the bullying days of Isiah (no that wasn’t me) Thomas, Bill Laimbeer and Rick Mahorn, it’s the team that plays in your face defense when it needs to and takes down teams when they are playing well. Just this past week, Detroit (8-3, 6-5 ATS) handed the Lakers their first loss of the season on their home court 106-95 and last night, the Pistons clipped Cleveland’s eight-game winning streak 96-89, with a 30-21 final stanza.
“It’s early, but it’s exciting,” said newly acquired Allen Iverson said. Tonight they will go after a trifecta of sorts against the defending NBA champion Boston Celtics (10-2, 5-7 ATS). If anything, Boston has looked better than last season, as the Big Three, have the confidence of being champions and Rajon Rondo and the bench players are more experienced. The Celtics won and covered against New York on Tuesday, ending a string of four games without a cover and they are 23-11 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread since 2006.
Since 2008 began, Boston has had their way with Detroit, winning seven of nine, covering the spread six times. This plays into why Sportsbook.com has Boston as seven point favorites with total of 183.5. The C’s are 21-9 ATS when playing only their second game in five days and is 27-10 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by three or points a game over the last two seasons. This is the largest margin Detroit has been an underdog in the last eight years in this series and the Pistons are 21-6 ATS after two or more consecutive Unders, leading one to believe the defensive intensity will be high. Eleven of the last 14 meetings have gone UNDER.
After this Eastern encounter is completed, the scene shifts out West for a Pacific Division battle. The Los Angeles Lakers (8-1, 6-3 ATS) are playing like most experts thought they would with Andrew Bynum paired with Pau Gasol. “Me and Andrew, it’s hard to match up,” Gasol said. “I think we should make a consistent effort to do that every game. You’ve got two guys who can produce. They’re easy looks, 10-footers - high-percentage shots.” For now, Kobe Bryant seems perfectly content with this arrangement, averaging 24.3 points and 19.3 field-goal attempts, his lowest totals in five seasons. The Lakers are off 116-point performance against Chicago and L.A. is 25-9 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last three seasons.
The Phoenix Suns record looks fine at 8-4 (6-6 ATS), yet an undercurrent of tension is apparent. Shaquille O’Neal has already been in two altercations, both leading to fines and one dismissal. Steve Nash seems almost bored in running a traditional offense and the bench often has been as helpful as ice for a scorpion bite. The only person shining for the Suns is Amare Stoudemire, who is a big matchup problem for nearly any team away from the basket. Phoenix is only 16-30 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.
The Suns are a four-point underdog to Los Angeles, which is the first this has been the case since the playoffs in 2006 (15 games) and a home dog to the Lakers for the first time in five seasons. Phil Jackson’s club is 15-3 ATS vs. division opponents and has seen his team cover six of last seven in the desert.
The first game starts at 8:05 Eastern on TNT.
StatFox Power Line- Celtics by 5, Lakers by 2